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DAX: course for 200 EMA? – UBS column

Review: On the first trading day of the current trading week, the DAX got badly under the wheels and broke down after the long sideways movement since the beginning of June. The leading index had already shown weakness as the further price increase in the US S&P 500 index could not be supported for months. The strong euro is causing problems for the DAX, as is the re-escalating coronavirus pandemic, the deteriorating relationship between the USA and China and a possible hard Brexit. The DAX slipped below the 50 EMA on Monday, which darkened the picture for the long term. The day before, the DAX carried out a pullback on this 50 EMA and reached the daily high of 12,830 points. But then it went down again.

Outlook: The DAX is likely to give up immediately. And as long as the index is listed below the 50 EMA, the next target price on the bottom is 12,320 points, where the 200 EMA is currently.

The short scenarios: The DAX went out of trading the day before at 12,642 points and was quoted significantly lower at 12,520 points in over-the-counter trading early on Thursday. The next stop for the bears is likely to be the 200 EMA. If it goes further lower, the mark of 12,000 points should follow and then 11,700 points, where the lower limit of the falling trend channel currently runs. In the long term, the lower Fibonacci fan in the weekly chart could be targeted at 11,400 points.

The long scenarios: The DAX can recover again and rise above the 50 EMA at 12,840 points. The next starting point would then be the round mark of 13,000 points and, as a result, the still open price gap at 13,116 points.

Disclaimer: The text is a column of the UBS. 4investors is not responsible for the content of the column and therefore does not necessarily have to agree with the opinion of the 4investors editorial team. Any liability and claims are therefore expressly excluded by 4investors!

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