Japan’s Prime Minister Abe resigns, his successor will probably be head of cabinet Suga – Commerzbank column

Japan’s Prime Minister Abe has announced that he will be leaving his post early for health reasons. His cabinet chief Suga (71 years old) has announced his candidacy for Abe’s successor as LDP party leader and head of government. Suga said he wanted to continue and develop Abe’s policy. He prefers a “triad of self-help, community aid and state aid” and should strengthen rural regions. If Suga is elected as party leader by the LDP on September 14, 2020, he should rule until the end of Abe’s regular term in September 2021. The Japanese exchange reacted only briefly to Prime Minister Abe’s announcement of his resignation. The courses recovered in the subsequent sessions. We do not expect that much will change in fiscal and monetary policy by the next elections in autumn 2021. Politicians are likely to be primarily concerned with containing the negative effects of the Covid-19 crisis. We do not expect any significant changes for the Japanese yen either, which is why we confirm our vote for the Japanese stock market as neutral within our regional ranking. The appreciation of the so-called “Abenomics” (triad of expansionary monetary and fiscal policy as well as structural reforms) turns out to be very mixed, depending on the perspective. Abenomics winners are mainly Investors and large corporations. The total dividend paid by Japanese companies doubled, the volume of share buybacks quadrupled and corporate governance was noticeably improved. Employment (including that of women) could be expanded significantly. Abe also brought stability and predictability back to politics. However, the lack of substantial structural reforms had a negative impact. The quality of jobs is often low. Abenomics’ debt continued to rise.

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