Markets

DAX® – Sharp U-Turn as a “game changer”?

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HSBC Daily Trading

A sharp U-turn as a “game changer”?

After nine trading days in a row, each with new all-time highs, this successful streak of the S&P 500® broke yesterday. And we’re staying in the USA for the time being: A few days ago – despite new record highs – we pointed out the increasing volatility of the US standard values. Since the VIX has now bottomed out, the negative divergence described is exacerbated. In this light, yesterday’s “DAX®-U-Turn” appears again as a more remarkable warning signal. Finally, the new high of 13,460 points was sold off on a sustained basis. Ultimately, a “bearish engulfing” occurs, which documents the failure of the resistance zone from the July high (13,314 points) and the remaining price gap from February (upper gap edge at 13,501 points). This means that yesterday’s trading day may mark the start of a seasonally-related weak phase in September. In the short term, the risks predominate, so investors should focus on the downside. The cross support from the June high (12,913 points) and two trend lines (current at 12,916 / 12,879 points) defines a first retreat area. The average of the last 50 days is also 12,790 points.

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DAX® (Daily)

Chart DAX®

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal

Short term triangle pattern

Yesterday we discussed the long-term start-up goals for gold at this point (see “HSBC Daily Trading from September 3rd). Today we want to break down the time frame and dwell in more detail on the breathing space that has existed since the previous all-time high of August 10th at USD 2,050. The above-mentioned gathering of strength is of paramount importance in order to digest the previous price increase. From a technical chart point of view, a small triangle has formed, whereby the 38-day line (currently at USD 1,939) has already proven to be a solid support several times. The equivalent price pattern is also shown in the Point & Figure chart. A rise above the $ 1,990 mark would resolve both upward trend continuation patterns. In the event of success, a procyclical investment buy signal is generated. The reward for the effort should then be a new record above the USD 2,050 mark. From a trading point of view, the USD 1,900 mark is a good hedge, because below this level a short-term exit signal would arise in both chart display forms.

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Gold (daily)

Chart gold

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal

Course target 460 points?

The most recent breather in the gold price (see “HSBC Daily Trading” from September 3rd) is reflected one-to-one in the chart of the NYSE Arca Gold Bug. The “doji” trained in August – the opening and end of the month courses are almost identical – reflects the most recent breath in textbooks. Of course, the most recently formed inverse S-K-S formation continues to exist (see chart). The level of the lower reversal results in a connection potential of around 180 points, which leads to a long-term price target in the area of ​​460 points. On the way to this region, the horizontal hurdles at 370 points define an important milestone. In this orbit, the gold mine titles reached their previous high at the beginning of August (374 points). After that, the parallel to the upward trend since the beginning of 2016 (currently at 434 points) marks out the next target. We would like to particularly emphasize the relative perspective of the mining stocks: Compared to the gold price, there is a bottoming out and the break in the downward trend that has existed since 2007. In the coming months or years, the “gold bugs” should therefore develop better than the gold price.

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NYSE Arca Gold Bugs (Monthly)

Chart NYSE Arca Gold Bugs

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal

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