DAX® – Make or break – the decision is near!


HSBC Daily Trading

Make or break – the decision is near!

While the S&P 500® achieved a new all-time high (3,501 points) yesterday for the fifth time in a row, the German standard values ​​are unfortunately currently lacking a similar momentum. Even the technical price drivers of the past few days have not been able to change this fact. As a reminder: The latest upward gap (12,911 / 12,925 points), the dissolution of a small flag consolidation, the break in the short-term correction trend (currently at 12,944 points) and the Ichimoku analysis provided the bulls with arguments. But there are also reasons for pausing now. The DAX® continues to move in the orbit of the former upward trend since December 2018 (currently at 13,097 points). Together with the last highs (13,222 / 13,314 points) and the remaining downward price gap from February (13,314 to 13,501 points), an important bundle of resistance arises at this level. In practice, investors cannot overestimate its importance. We would even go so far that a new all-time high above 13,795 points beckoned if the described lid is removed. Traders in particular can use the above Gap at a good 12,900 points currently use a close hedge.


DAX® (Daily)

Chart DAX®

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal

Resistance bundle in front of the chest

Following the dramatic price slump in spring – including the sell-off low of March at 269 points – the STOXX® Europe 600 saw an equally dynamic recovery trend. As for the continuation of the rally, the European standard values ​​are currently trading at a very important threshold. After all, the last three monthly highs were all between 375 and 380 points. In conjunction with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the entire correction from February / March (371 points) and the moving average of the last 38 months (currently at 377 points), a technical key zone arises here, especially in this haze also the 200-day line (current at 373 points) runs. A jump over the discussed hurdles would confirm the upward momentum of the last few months and lay the foundation for a renewed attempt at the ultimate resistance zone of the last 20 years at a good 400 points. From a risk perspective, we would like to highlight the two most recent monthly lows at 356/355 points, because a slide below this level leaves the risk of failure on the above. Resistance bundles swell significantly.


STOXX® Europe 600 (Monthly)

Chart STOXX® Europe 600

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal

The two “Ts”: Trend break + trend reversal

Our last analysis of Nokia shares was a few months, if not years, back. At the moment, however, it is worth taking a look at the “fallen angel”, because the starting point in terms of chart technology is promising. After all, the latest price advances have caused a break in the bearish trend since the end of 2015 or its steeper counterpart since the beginning of 2019 (currently at EUR 3.96 / 4.18). The trend line listed last also harmonizes perfectly with the average of the last 90 weeks (currently at EUR 4.19). However, the most recently completed, inverse shoulder-head-shoulder formation (see chart) is undoubtedly the biggest exclamation point in terms of sustainable change for the better. In purely mathematical terms, the imputed connection potential from the lower reversal can be estimated at around EUR 2. In the long term, prices in the range of EUR 6 are definitely possible. The horizontal hurdles at around EUR 5 mark an important milestone on the way to this price region. The main charm of the current constellation lies in the fact that the outbreak situation described allows close protection on the underside. Ultimately, a sustained rebreak of the EUR 4 mark would negate the bottoming out described above.


Nokia (Weekly)

Chart Nokia

Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal

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