The USA and China are optimistic after the resumption of trade talks. Both sides are seeing progress on trade issues and are determined to take the necessary steps to ensure the success of the deal, it said. Both sides stressed that it was a “constructive dialogue”.
The German economy contracted at a record pace in Q2 due to the corona restrictions, but not as much as initially assumed. The GDP fell by 9.7% compared to the previous quarter, announced the Federal Statistical Office. An earlier estimate had assumed a minus of 10.1%.
German state budget with a huge gap in the first half of the year: Due to the Corona recession, the federal, state, local and social security authorities together spent EUR 51.6 billion more than they received from January to June. This puts the deficit at 3.2% of GDP. In the same period of the previous year, a surplus of EUR 46.5 billion was achieved. In 2020 as a whole, the German state is likely to write deep red figures, the Bundesbank expects a deficit of around 7%.
The mood in the German executive suite improved further in August. The Ifo business climate index climbed to 92.6 (July: 90.4) points. It is the fourth increase in a row: “The German economy is on a recovery course,” said Ifo President Fuest. The managers assessed both their business prospects (97.5 after 96.7 points) and their situation (87.9 after 84.5 points) more favorable than before. The figures from the Ifo Institute are very well compatible with the assessment that economic activity in Germany will be able to recover more sustainably from the second half of the year.
German government bonds suffered on the reporting day from the unexpectedly good Ifo business climate data, which indicated an improved mood in German companies. US bonds also fell. Investors pointed to the current development in US-China relations. Apparently, the latest tensions seem to be easing somewhat.
The more positive outlook for the German economy only helped the German stock market initially. A yielding Wall Street unsettled the actors on the local stage. DAX -0.04%, MDAX -0.10%, TecDAX + 0.45%. With the hope of medical success in the fight against the corona virus, various stocks of potential beneficiaries of such a development were in demand. MTU, the DAX leader, climbed 2.2%. A lack of interest in titles that were previously in demand as crisis winners, caused them to decline. E.g. the cook box mail order company Hellofresh 3.9%. A surprising deterioration in consumer confidence and price losses at Apple have ruined the buying mood on Wall Street. Dow Jones -0.2%, S & P-500 -0.4%, Nasdaq-Comp. -0.8%. In demand were stocks that are new to the Dow: Salesforce.com + 3.6%, Amgen + 5.4%, Honeywell + 3.2%. Pfizer, ExxonMobil and Raytheon, whose shares fell between 1.1 and 3.2%, have to leave. Nikkei 225 is currently lighter with 23,268 points (-0.12%).
Credit Suisse is repositioning its business in Switzerland and wants to reduce costs and generate further growth by restructuring the business. E.g. the previously independent subsidiary Neue Aargauer Bank will be integrated. In view of the fact that customers are increasingly using digital channels, the institute also wants to reduce the branch network in Switzerland to 109 from 146. Thanks to the measures, the group is aiming for annual gross savings of around CHF 100 million from 2022. This is part of the austerity package announced at the end of July totaling around CHF 400 million, it said.
The unexpectedly positive numbers from the Ifo business climate have given the euro a boost.
Oil / gold
The persistently positive sentiment on the stock markets and the first approaching cyclones that could threaten US production facilities have caused oil prices to rise. Gold showed little change on Tuesday.
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