After many augurs had predicted at best a sideways trend on the German stock markets before the beginning of the last week of trading, the stock exchange taught them better. Because the German share prices have increased noticeably in the past five trading days. The main reasons for the positive mood were relatively good economic data and relatively positive economic outlook. That z. For example, German exports, industrial production and also the data on the US labor market were better than expected, solidified the opinion that the economy has now survived the worst of the corona crisis and pushed negative influencing factors such as the increasingly violent ones Conflict between the USA and China or the fear of a second corona wave are in the background.
The prices were also supported by better than expected company figures in the current quarterly reporting season. For example, Siemens was one of the big weekly winners in the Dax with a plus of 4.5 percent to 115.52 euros. The courses of the Munich-based group were primarily driven by positive comments from analysts. Daimler’s papers also benefited from positive analyst comments. They jumped 7.6 percent over the week to 40.30 euros. However, some heavyweights also lagged behind the general trend. This was the case with BWM, for example, which had to report a quarterly loss for the first time in a long time. The company’s ordinary shares were last listed at EUR 55.07. This means they were only able to improve by 1.4 percent on a weekly basis and only make up a small part of the losses they had recorded in the days before.
The bond markets have moved sideways in the past few weeks and largely ignored the slightly brighter economic expectations. Overall, the yield on the trend-setting ten-year government bond rose slightly over the course of the week by 2 basis points to -0.51 percent. The current yield rose by the same amount. It was calculated on Friday at -0.55 percent.
The US stock exchanges made even better progress than the German stock markets. Even if there was profit-taking at the end of the week, the Dow Jones index made up 3.8 percent in a weekly comparison and closed on Friday at 27,433.48 points. The broader S&P 500 index gained 2.4 percent, ending trading at 3,351.28. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index improved 2.1 percent to 11,139.39 points. At the end of the week, he suffered a bit from profit-taking at the tech heavyweights, after they had previously risen significantly.
Precisely because the stock exchanges have grown significantly in the past few days, the analysts are quite cautious for the current week. In view of a relatively thin calendar with new economic data, the corona worries and the ever faster escalation spiral in the conflict between the USA and China could move more into focus than in the previous week, several market observers justify their caution. In addition, the US presidential election is slowly but surely casting its shadow. The fact that the Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden currently has better cards than incumbent Donald Trump is not positive for the stock markets in the eyes of many observers. Because if Biden is chosen, tax increases are to be expected, they argue.
One of the few economic data this week that could overlay the above-mentioned topics is above all the new ZEW economic expectations, which will be announced on Tuesday. The markets should also keep an eye on the development of consumer prices in the USA (Wednesday) and Germany (Thursday) as well as the new figures on gross domestic product in the euro zone and on retail sales and consumer confidence in the USA. The corresponding dates will be announced on Friday.
The current quarterly reporting season is slowly coming to an end. E.ON (Wednesday), as well as Deutsche Telekom, Deutsche Wohnen and RWE (each on Thursday) present their current figures of the Dax values in the current week. In particular, the price of Telekom has already increased significantly in the past week due to the good results of its US mobile communications subsidiary. The focus should also be on a number of values from the second row, which also publish quarterly figures. These include two possible corona winners on Monday with Zalando and on Tuesday with HelloFresh, on Thursday, however, with Tui one of the big corona losers and with Sixt another company that is suffering from the corona crisis and last week its outlook for Has revised downwards for the second time in a short period of time in 2020 and 2021.
Selected important dates of the week
Monday. 08/10: Development of consumer prices in China; Development of investor confidence in the euro zone; Development of vacancies in the USA
Tuesday, August 11th: ZEW economic expectations for Germany and the euro zone; Development of producer prices in the USA; Unemployment rate and development of the gross domestic product in Great Britain
Wednesday, August 12th: Development of consumer prices in the USA,
Thursday, August 13th: Development of consumer prices in Germany; Development of initial and follow-up orders for unemployment benefits in the USA
Friday, August 14th: Development of industrial production and retail sales in China; Gross domestic product in the euro zone; Development of retail sales in the USA; Development of consumer confidence in the USA
Author: Dr. Robert Ertl, board member of Bayerische Börse AG
Disclaimer: This text is a column of the Bavarian Stock Exchange AG. 4investors is not responsible for the content of the column and therefore does not necessarily have to agree with the opinion of the 4investors editorial team. Any liability and claims are therefore expressly excluded by 4investors!
At a glance – chart and news: E.ON