Markets

The Dax is facing difficult months

Ab Today, as an investor, you should keep your ears open: August and September are by far the worst months for the Dax. Both together have resulted in a loss of around 2.5 percent on average over the past 45 years. The really exciting thing about it: No other one of the remaining ten months can even come close to the water for these two fun-lovers. From October to July inclusive, the Dax has posted profits on an average monthly basis since the mid-1970s. So far, there have been no firm and firm reasons for this. Perhaps it is simply because we mostly have better things to do in the northern hemisphere in August and September than to let the fidgety courses spoil the summer mood.

The current, season-independent technique of the Dax: It recently undercut the upward trend that had accompanied him since the Corona low at 8255 points, tears a gap (“gap”) at the worst time, broken key indicators “negative” Divergences ”and the most recent trip to the new cycle high at 13,313 points was countered much too quickly. In addition, the mood among investors is currently below 13,000 Dax points better than it was above and the rest of the current technology does not necessarily trigger enthusiasm, especially after weak Thursday. In other words, it’s done. The next nine weeks should honor their statistics.

Gold is rising because of the crisis and the euro is growing

The gold price is completely different. After a rally opposing all resistance and extreme technical adversity, he has set new historical records of over $ 1900 and has just barely missed the $ 2000 mark. Even if the precious metals can get really wild and one or the other interim development should be enjoyed with caution: New all-time highs are basically the best confirmation of an upward trend. Technical arguments that would speak for a sudden, sustainable end to the rally are therefore de facto non-existent.

The gold price is likely to continue to grow significantly. It is difficult to predict whether 300, 500 or even more dollars will be added in the next six to 12 months. But even if the further rise is moderate and the rate of increase is slower, you can imagine how it is in the eyes of investors around the world. If gold really is the crisis indicator par excellence, we should start warming up. I would therefore much prefer if the motivation of those who are now buying gold is to be found in the fact that, unlike first-class bonds, it does not cost any interest. However, I lack the belief for that. At almost all times, gold was always – at least – also seen as crisis preparedness.

Finally, a look at the foreign exchange market and thus perhaps the most important development in recent weeks: The euro has taught the dollar more. It is more than impressive to see the dynamic with which he gained around 10 cents and, above all, was able to overcome the powerful resistance zone between around $ 1.15 and $ 1.16. I am fascinated by how our common currency, which many have often given the last escort, is currently showing the heels of the currency rock of the past centuries. Of course, considerations about interest rate differentials and their future development can also be largely behind the buying mood for the euro. The question of trust certainly also plays a role: no investor will tie an investment to his leg, the demise of which is a matter of course for him. For this reason, too, anything but further gains for the euro against the dollar in the coming twelve to eighteen months would come as a surprise.

Technically, the air for the euro first reaches regions of around $ 1.20 to $ 1.21. There, powerful horizontal resistance and the long-term downward trend are blocking the way. Nevertheless, I already give the euro at least a 50 percent chance of rates between $ 1.25 and $ 1.30. The current rise in the euro should therefore not be a flash in the pan, and it should not be a technical problem with an already established expiry date. Rather, it probably marks a medium-term, perhaps even long-term turn. Export-oriented companies should not like this so much. Nevertheless, a strong currency was usually better than a weak one for an economic region – and certainly not only because it is cheaper to travel with.

The Dax falls as the euro and gold rise? That could fit: Our leading index falls because there is a crisis, gold rises because there is a crisis and the euro grows because the 50 American stars really shone brighter.

The author heads Staud Research GmbH in Bad Homburg.

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