Markets

Daily outlook for July 31: DAX collapses. Focus on tech values!

So far there was a lot of speculation. The facts came today. For example, GDP in Germany fell by 10 percent in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the same period last year. An annualized rate is always reported from the United States. Accordingly, GDP shrank by 32.9 percent in Q2. On top of that. Initial jobless claims remained historically high in the United States. In the week up to and including July 25, 1.434 million people submitted a new application, the Ministry of Labor said. The bad news caused prices on the stock markets to plummet. The DAX® lost around 3.5 percent to 12,380 points during the day and the EuroStoxx®50 lost around 3.0 percent to 3,200 points. In the USA, the stock barometer started trading with a minus of around one percent. Some US tech companies will report quarterly numbers tonight.

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Most of the yields on the bond market fell. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell three places to -0.54 percent. The yield for comparable US securities was approaching the all-time low of 0.545 percent. The precious metals also came under pressure. The gold price was able to defend the $ 1,940 mark. However, the silver price dropped more than a dollar to $ 23. Palladium’s losses from the past two trading days totaled just under ten percent. The oil price also recorded losses. The price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil temporarily fell below the $ 42 mark.

Focus on companies

HeidelbergCement announced a high net loss for Q2 and did not forecast the full year. This was not well received by the investors. The stock was one of the biggest losers in the DAX® today. Basswood presented good numbers for the past business quarter, exceeding expectations. However, the stock was unable to escape the weak mood on the stock exchanges and lost around two percent. At Nestle organic sales growth in the second quarter was 2.8 percent. However, many investors used the good news to take profits. At ENI and Total the collapse in oil prices caused billions in losses. However, the stocks today outperformed the overall market.

Tomorrow, from Germany, among other things Befesa, Nemetschek, ProSiebenSat.1 and Traton Publish figures for the past business quarter. Air France figures from the rest of Europe, BNP Paribas, FiatChrysler and Nokia and from the USA the data from Caterpillar, and ExxonMobil in the focus of investors.

Important appointments

  • China – Purchasing Managers’ Index
  • Germany – retail sales
  • Europe – Eurozone Q2 GDP, first estimate
  • Europe – Euro zone consumer prices
  • USA – Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index
  • USA – Uni Michigan Consumer Confidence

Chart-technical outlook

Resistance marks: 12,400 / 12,560 points

Support marks: 12,000 / 12,230 / 12,300 points

The DAX® opened today with a gap down and dipped to 12,250 points during the day. In the last hour of trading, the index distanced from the daily low. With the rebound, the bulls showed that they are still there. It will not be easy for them in the coming days. Many investors are unsettled by the economic data and are waiting for a recovery to at least 12,560 points. However, the bears should not let up and put pressure below 12,230 points.

DAX® in points; 4 hour chart (1 candle = 4 hours)

Viewing period: June 19, 2020 – July 30, 2019. Historical considerations are not reliable indicators of future developments. Source: tradingdesk.onemarkets.de

DAX® in points; Weekly chart (1 candle = 1 week)

Viewing period: 07/31/2014 – 07/30/2019. Historical considerations are not reliable indicators of future developments. Source: tradingdesk.onemarkets.de

Inline warrants on the DAX®

UnderlyingWKNSales price in eurosLower knock-out barrier in Pts.Upper knock-out barrier in pointsFinaler Valuation day
DAX®HZ22QZ6.1611,00013,70017.09.2020
DAX®HZ22NB7.8210,60014,00017.09.2020

Source: HypoVereinsbank onemarkets; As of July 30, 2020; 5:43 p.m.

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