Cryptocurrencies

$ 8,500 or $ 10,500? Discover the next Great Bitcoin Movement (BTC)

The price zone in which Bitcoin is traded has been continuously shrinking since the third Halving which took place on May 11, 2020. Since the beginning of July, the price of Bitcoin has been in a $ 9,000 zone – $ 9,400 which is extremely small. No one is currently able to say whether the next big price movement for Bitcoin will be around $ 10,500 or around $ 8,500, which confirms the current great uncertainty in the market.


Bitcoin on the rise… in our hearts!

The good news is flowing in the world of Bitcoin. PayPal It has just confirmed that it is working on a solution to allow its users to buy and sell Bitcoin directly from its platform.

PayPal has been working on this for several months, since the online payment giant had warned the companyEuropean Union of his project in March 2020.

This news has added to all the positive signals of the past few weeks, with more and more of institutional investors who buy Bitcoin, but also many metrics indicating that the Bitcoin network continues to strengthen on its fundamentals.

Bitcoin trades in an increasingly tight price zone

Despite all these positive signals, the price of Bitcoin remains extremely flat. Since mid-May 2020, the price of Bitcoin has thus been in an area $ 8,100 – $ 10,400.

Since mid-June 2020, the price of Bitcoin has been stuck in an area $ 9,000 – $ 9,600. Finally, since the beginning of July 2020, this area has shrunk even more since the price of Bitcoin has remained between $ 9,000 and $ 9,400.

Bitcoin price volatility over 30 days fell to 23.5%, its lowest since March 2019.

Some even end up losing sight of the real signal in the Bitcoin world, and let themselves be blinded by the ambient noise which consists in saying that the Bitcoin has become boring.

However, the price of Bitcoin has been up 30% since the start of 2020.

Better yet, from the lowest of $ 3,800 reached during the Black Thursday of Bitcoin in March 2020, its price rebounded by just over 140%.

The disappointment surrounding the current price of Bitcoin should therefore be put into perspective.

Bitcoin price: scenario Bearish vs. scenario Bullish

In terms of technical analysis, two main trends are currently in conflict: the Bearish camp and the Bullish camp. All of this confirms thatit is impossible to predict the price of Bitcoin in the short term.

On the one hand, we have the price of Bitcoin which has managed to stay above the moving average at 50 weeks for the past eight weeks.

For some, this is a sign that a bull run is in preparation for Bitcoin.

Added to this are signs of seller exhaustion around $ 9,000 since two weeks.

The main resistance to break in order to be able to aim higher will be around $ 9,930. We stay very close to this famous psychological barrier of $ 10,000 above which Bitcoin never managed to maintain itself for a long time in 2020.

A close of the week that starts above this resistance of $ 9,930 would be the positive signal that could pave the way for a bull run similar to what we had known in June 2019 when the price of Bitcoin had finally reached $ 13,880.

We are obviously not there yet, but this is the thesis supported by Bitcoin Bullish currently.

On the other hand, the Bitcoin Bearish highlight a key support around $ 8,900. If this support were to be broken, the 50-week moving average support which is at $ 8,598 would be exposed, and we could consider a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin around $ 7K.

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If such a scenario were to occur, we could not overlook the possibility of a further fall around $ 6K with many new entrants who would capitulate.

It’s the famous big dump that I already told you about at the end of May 2020. I still think this scenario is possible for the next few weeks.

The low trading volumes seen on the Bitcoin market have stabilized its price. It now remains attached to its 50-day moving average, which is around $ 9,200. This is confirmed, since the price of Bitcoin is currently of $ 9,140 at the time of writing.

The economic situation remains extremely bad

Another concern comes from the United States Federal Reserve. This has reduced its unreasonable impression of fiat money in recent weeks. His Balance Sheet has even just gone below 7,000 billions of dollars :

The Fed's Balance Sheet has dropped below $ 7 trillion

Some see this change in Fed attitude as a Bearish signal for Bitcoin in the weeks to come.

My feeling is that things can very quickly start in the opposite direction. The stock market is still in a speculative bubble that has formed following the unlimited quantitative easing program that the Fed has been carrying out since March 2020.

Sooner or later, the equity market should reconnect to the real economy.

A real economy in an extremely worrying situation. The number of job seekers in the United States is still very high. At the end of July 2020, many will see their allowance of $ 600 expire. This will cause a crisis in other sectors, since they will no longer be able to pay their rents and credits.

More and more companies, which did not get a bailout from the United States government, are headed for bankruptcy.

The situation around the pandemic of coronavirus in the United States is probably the most worrying subject at the moment. The first wave never ended in the United States. After a plateau in late May / early June, the number of cases detected each day explodes in most American states:

Evolution of coronavirus cases in the USA

Unfortunately, the daily death toll follows the same trend. The coronavirus pandemic is still not under control in the United States. Even when the fear of a second wave appears in certain European countries.

There is therefore a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this coronavirus pandemic, which necessarily has an impact on the Bitcoin market.

All this should have repercussions on the equity market in the coming weeks. A fall in the stock market could ultimately benefit Bitcoin, which remains a hedge against uncertainty.

The current uncertainty highlights once again the benefit of being a Bitcoin HODLer

The current situation highlights once again the advantage of becoming a Bitcoin HODLer. If you have no guarantee on the price of Bitcoin in the short term, the long term is much less uncertain.

By becoming a Bitcoin HODLer, you can avoid being stressed by the current situation.

You can take the opportunity to learn more about Bitcoin and the economy in general. It is by continuously improving your knowledge that you will be able to make the best decisions for your future.

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This is yet another overestimated benefit of Bitcoin. As a savings technology, Bitcoin allows you to favor long time. This allows you to devote to the things that really matter in life. So the uncertainty Bitcoin is in will not affect you more than that. Indeed, you will understand that it is an integral part of the price cycles of Bitcoin.

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