Review: The DAX continues to move in a very long sideways phase and is highly volatile. After a breakout was faked on Friday with a daily low of 12,416 points, the DAX started the new trading week directly the day before and was able to move up to 12,836 points. And now it gets interesting, because it formed the third lower course high in a row. The long sideways move could lead to a triple top, a long-term trend reversal formation. However, this has not yet been confirmed. The upward trend is still clearly intact and the 50 and 200 EMA are also trading well below the current price level. However, despite the sharp increase from the previous day, the lower trend channel limit is already in questionable proximity.
Outlook: The DAX closed the day before with a premium of 1.32% at 12,799 points. But the strength could be deceiving. Something is brewing in the background.
The short scenarios: The DAX remains below the previous high, confirming the falling highs at 12,913, 12,842 and 12,836 points. There is renewed downward pressure, which is already confirmed early Tuesday morning with a DAX level below 12,600 points. If the DAX continues to slide below 12,550 points, the trend channel would be broken. Then a return to massive support at 12,000 points should follow. In the long term, the situation for the DAX would deteriorate under the 200 and 50 EMA, which is currently in the range of 11,900 points and 11,980 points, respectively.
The long scenarios: The DAX can stay in the trend channel and still break out above the resistance at 12,840 points. The bulls’ first target would be the high at 12,913 points.