EUR / USD: follow-up purchases are needed – UBS column

Review: The EUR / USD currency pair broke out of the triangle as expected in the previous days. However, the upward momentum was short-lived. The history high has so far been reached at USD 1,137, as a result of which it went down again. EUR / USD is currently testing the previous breakout area again and could then turn up again. The 5-year chart shows the current problem for the bulls. In the large picture, the important 200 EMA runs exactly in the range of USD 1,137 in this weekly chart and has so far blocked a further price increase. In the past, EUR / USD has repeatedly bounced downwards on this 200 EMA in the weekly chart. If the bulls fail to break through again here, the situation could quickly deteriorate again.

Outlook: EUR / USD is moving broadly in a long downward trend. In the short term, the currency pair managed to break out above the 200 EMA in the daily chart in June, a very bullish signal. Then there was a further increase, but the bulls now have to crack the 200 EMA in the weekly chart.

The long scenarios: As long as EUR / USD is in daily charts above its 200 EMA, the situation is more bullish. Breaking out of the triangle is also a bullish signal. EUR / USD continues to trend sideways and is gathering strength to break out further. The bulls finally managed to rise above the 200 EMA weekly chart at USD 1,137. This would brighten the situation and further increases in prices in the long term. The bulls’ first target would be the high at $ 1,142 on June 10th.

The short scenarios: EUR / USD cannot use the breakout from the triangle and subsides again. The first catch would be the triangle’s lower bound at USD 1,120. If it goes lower, the EUR / USD should move towards the 50s EMA on the daily chart at USD 1,116 and below it on the 200s EMA at USD 1,108. Under the 200 EMA, the situation would deteriorate again in the long term and support at USD 1,100 would be the first target.

Disclaimer: The text is a column of the UBS. The content of the column is not the responsibility of 4investors and therefore does not necessarily have to agree with the opinion of the 4investors editorial team. Any liability and claims are therefore expressly excluded by 4investors!

At a glance – Chart and News: Dollar – Currency

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