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Gold: Will there be a price doubling?

The price of an ounce of gold has barely moved in the past week. But if you look at a longer time horizon, gold appears to be a very worthwhile investment. Over the year, the gold price rose by around 27 percent. If you look at a period of three years, the increase is almost 45 percent. At five years it is 52 percent. And compared to the turn of the millennium, you can see an increase of more than 500 percent.

The price of an ounce of gold is currently around $ 1,780. The precious metal is almost at an annual high. $ 1,784.50 is recorded in this statistic. The 52-week low is $ 1,349.60. However, experts believe that this low will soon be seen again.

Rather, there is a further upward trend. Many observers see $ 2,000 as the next threshold. That would be a record level. Various factors play into the hands of investors. On the one hand, gold is and remains a safe haven in times of crisis. The current pandemic creates various uncertainties, not every share is safe, not every form of investment is currently valued. That calls for a gold plan. The US election in November creates additional uncertainties. These can become a choice of direction for the USA.

Bernard Dahdah, head of precious metal research at Natixis, points to a completely different aspect. He expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to focus more on the yield curves from autumn. Inflation will also come into focus again. Central banks around the world are currently even more busy pumping fresh money into the market.

However, the upcoming measures could support the gold price. Controlling the yield curves together with inflation can bring real interest rates into negative territory. And then gold becomes even more attractive.

The consequence for Dahdah is clear. Gold can rise to $ 1,950 an ounce over the next twelve months. Other experts also believe that around $ 2,000 is realistic. However, Dahdah is no longer so optimistic for the second half of 2021. The dynamic trend should initially not continue.

In this context, investors could like a forecast from Liechtenstein. There, the Incrementum experts looked far into the future. They believe it is realistic with an 80 percent probability that the gold price will rise by 6.3 percent in the coming years. Your likely price target for 2030 still sounds very unrealistic. With an 80 percent chance, this is $ 4,800. There is even a 15 percent chance for a gold price of $ 8,900 an ounce. As strange as this goal sounds. In early 2000, an ounce of gold was $ 283. At the time, nobody would have expected this price to increase sixfold to almost $ 1,800 in 20 years.

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