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CK * Trends: Automobility 2030 & the leap into the electrical age

The new era of mobility will be shaped by the advance of electric drives in the 2020s. For the suppliers, this means: new tasks, new roles, new sources of revenue. Some of them are already benefiting from the change. A new future market is emerging, which we are addressing in the new edition of CK * Trends!

The age of gasoline and diesel ends in these years and is replaced by battery electronics and hydrogen technology. The discussions about the efficiency of economical internal combustion engines or the meaningfulness and the true environmental factor of the new technologies are pure retreat battles of a defeated industry. The decision has long been politically and socially detached from all technical discussions.

It is therefore a waste of time for us to continue this discussion beyond academic debate. Instead, we would be well advised to adapt to this new era, mentally and in all respects. This affects you specifically as an employee or even an entrepreneur in the automotive sector, but also as a car owner – and above all as an investor.

The added value of the future in the automotive sector will no longer take place with the car manufacturers who have competed with ever higher horsepower and torque, but with those who manage the data or supply the electronic and electrical components.

The car occupants of the future – you will soon no longer be able to speak of “drivers” because cars themselves take control – are no longer interested in the performance of an engine. On motorways, which covers a nationwide speed limit of 130 km / h, it is not surprising. Design also becomes secondary. What counts are the comfort-technical equipment inside the car, the entertainment elements and of course the technical miracle cure that make the car a real “car-mobile” – a “self-driver”.

Therefore, our investments should not go to automakers like VW, Toyota or Ford. These companies face the major challenge of ruining themselves. On the one hand, they have to produce the old technologies as long as they are still on the market, their multi-billion dollar production facilities write off, continue to provide spare parts for years, retrain or lay off hundreds of thousands of employees with qualifications that are no longer required. At the same time, they have to build up completely new structures that – the faster they are successful – knock their own old pillars off.

This balancing act of complete technological disruption has hardly been achieved by any company, let alone an entire branch of industry, in the past decades. Entirely new, unencumbered players like Tesla are more likely to take over this field and many of the old automakers will experience the descending path of the former mobile king Nokia after the advent of the smartphone.

This applies equally to numerous suppliers to the automotive industry. But there are also those who were able to act quickly and flexibly enough and who are adapting to the new times. A gold digger mood is currently emerging for them, and they are the ones who sell the shovels. Anyone who, like Infineon, produces semiconductors for an entire industry can ultimately not care which of their customers will ultimately survive in the market. They all buy from him.

We would like to meet some of these local “shovel sellers” together with Dr. Watch Wenceslas. The turn of the times will mark a major turning point for German industry and society. It is feared that we as an economy will experience severe net losses due to this technology change. But there will also be those winners who are always flushed up by new waves. Here it is important to apply as an employee and here to participate as an investor.

I wish you successful knowledge and a happy automotive future, even if as a car fan I will miss the sound of the V8 as well as the smell of petrol. But, as is well known, nothing is as constant as change – and it is important to be happy.

Which companies will be the leading forces here? Eike Wenzel in the current issue made his thoughts.

Yours Dirk Müller

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