Review: Since the breakthrough over the massive resistance range at 11,150 / 11,200 on May 25th, the DAX has been able to move higher and rose to 12,913 points on June 8th. In the area of 12,950 points, however, there is persistent resistance, at which the bulls were rejected directly. On the two previous days, the DAX went out with one red day candle. After a long price increase, the bulls’ strength could wane, especially since the price increase is now based on seven gaps. The ground for this increase remains very shaky, because gaps are usually closed again.
Outlook: The upward trend in the DAX has so far been clearly intact. The recent price drops could still be classified as a small correction before a new upward wave. However, the DAX could also face a deep correction.
The short scenarios: The DAX can no longer overcome the resistance at 12,950 points and shortly fails at the mark of 12,700 points. If the current correction expands, the start target of the bears at the first downward gap in the course should be at 12,055 points. If it goes further down, the DAX would be well supported at the round mark of 12,000 points and at the 200 EMA at the current 11,900 points. However, if the bears break down below the 200 EMA, the situation would deteriorate again significantly. Then a return to the Fibonacci fan in a 5-year chart at 11,200 points would have to be expected.
The long scenarios: The DAX can quickly shake off the recent weakness and rise above 12,750 points. In this case, a new attack on the resistance at 12,950 points is likely to take place quickly. If the bulls make a breakthrough here, 13,000 and 13,050 points should follow quickly.
Disclaimer: The text is a column of the UBS. The content of the column is not the responsibility of 4investors and therefore does not necessarily have to agree with the opinion of the 4investors editorial team. Any liability and claims are therefore expressly excluded by 4investors!