Economy & Politics

Statec announces 29% more unemployed for 2020

Despite government measures, employment will fall in Luxembourg, the Institute of Statistics plans. 15,000 jobs could disappear if partial unemployment and leave for family reasons were no longer relevant.

Patrick JACQUEMOT

Despite government measures, employment will fall in Luxembourg, the Institute of Statistics plans. 15,000 jobs could disappear if partial unemployment and leave for family reasons were no longer relevant.

Question optimism, it is not on the side of Statec that we must look. In its latest economic outlook note, the Luxembourg statistical agency points to the probable unemployment jump in the coming months. This trend has already started since the appearance of covid-19 in the Grand Duchy. The unemployment rate has already jumped from 5.5% in February to 6.9% in April. But this is only the beginning, alert analysts.

While in April the number of job seekers stood at 20,253 people, Statec does not see the curve reversing immediately. And even beyond. Thus, in 2020, the increase in the number of unemployed could reach + 29%, and even extend in 2021 (+ 10%). Clearly, the May publication indicates that “the government measures taken are not going to not able to absorb the shock in its entirety and the consequences of the pandemic. ” Not really the tone used so far by the Minister of Labor, Dan Kersch (LSAP) …


An employee works on steel bars at a factory in Hangzhou, in China's eaastern Zhejiang province on May 15, 2020. - China's industrial output returned to growth for the first time this year in April, official data showed on May 15, but another sharp drop in retail sales indicated crucial consumer demand remains weak, which could scotch hopes for a quick economic recovery. (Photo by STR / AFP) / China OUT

With an unemployment rate of 6.9% of the working population, Luxembourg is strongly affected by the crisis. But ADEM notes that the phenomenon is more linked to difficulties in finding a job than because of new registrations.


Statec perceives the extent of the crisis, in particular by looking at the figures for partial unemployment. In March and April, the system was put in place for around a third of the country’s employees. Still ten times more than during the 2009 recession, note economists. Barely eleven years ago, 3.4% of employees had been covered by this measure … The massive use of leave for family reasons also masks the real situation on the job market, says Statec. Indeed, what about the fate of some 40,000 current beneficiaries at the end of the health crisis? Will they find their place or will they have to look for a new job?


Parental leave,!!!! to be used only to illustrate parental leave. Foto: Gerry Huberty

With 46.7 million euros paid for the month of March by the Joint Center for Social Security and an advance of 94 million in April, the device dedicated to parents of young children during confinement has been requested, the ministry said on Wednesday. Social Security.


But for Statec, without these two measures, domestic employment could decrease in volume in the next six months. A loss of 15,000 people, according to the current estimate. Already March had shown a decline, with salaried employment falling by 1.5% in one month, “which is unprecedented”. The fact remains that the government (admittedly) reduced the amplitude of the leave for family reasons with the deconfinement, but (above all) chose to extend the access of companies to partial unemployment measures until the end of the year. Social parachute obviously essential.

Moreover, for experts, the job retention measures will generate “a slight increase in employment in 2020 and 2021: + 0.6% and + 1% respectively”. But nothing comparable to the + 3.6% of 2019, however.

In its analyzes, Statec notes that the crisis also had the consequence of lower the cost of wages. Already because short-time working only takes into account 80% of income, but also because the drop in activity has emptied the payslips of overtime to be paid, or bonuses and gratuities linked to the efficiency of staff .


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