So if you ask me: I’m an optimist. I always have been because it is much nicer to see the world through the colored glasses than to paint black all the time. The only question is: how clever is that? Especially if you also apply optimism to investing? Wouldn’t a little more pessimism be good for us – even if the good mood after so many weeks of lockdown just acts as a balm for the economy and soul?
Pessimism does not mean: sell your papers. Neither: stop saving. But only: think carefully about how much you are investing now – and where! It is like this: the current downturn has been the worst since 1930. It is causing the global economy to shrink. And it will be a while before production, consumption and service providers recover from this shock. Unemployment has now skyrocketed to 30 million in the United States alone. In Germany, one in four employees is on short-time work. And what is the stock market doing?
The celebrated records again in April: The MSCI World achieved eleven percent plus, Wall Street wrote one of the best months in 33 years. The Dax is also marching back to the level of early 2019. Can this be? Or is that again over-optimism?
Let’s ask asset managers, they are known as a defensive guild. A number of them currently see the market as “doubtful”, but “cautiously optimistic”, according to a spontaneous survey by V-Bank. But: The speed of recovery surprises some, at least says Helge Müller from Genève Invest. What surprises him and many other analysts: Which stocks the turbulent upswing particularly quickly pushed upwards – namely, the tech stocks and risky high-yield papers.
Today’s winners don’t have to be tomorrow’s winners
Is Wall Street decoupling from Main Street – the financial world from the real economy? For main street companies, the second quarter will turn out to be very bad – only then will all chain reaction losses show. So what Wall Street celebrates is definitely not the business outlook. Not even the close lockdown end. It celebrates the Fed and the central banks. With new floods of money and even larger bond purchase programs, they are now incorporating such large parts of the global social product that hardly any state or large corporation can stumble in the future.
That calms the nerves. But it shouldn’t make you cocky. Because today’s winners don’t have to be tomorrow’s winners. Andreas Görler from Wellinvest warns that this crisis has a profound effect on psyche and private life. You don’t get very far with logic. With caution and a focus on quality companies with a stable business model, you can get much further. So let’s wait for the second quarter and especially stop the second pandemic wave. So long you can be more defensive on the road. The worst is only over when the cyclicals and raw materials increase. It was always like that.
What if it’s different this time? Then I was probably too optimistic – that the defensive in particular are experiencing their revival again in this crisis. But does not harm.
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