Many people mistakenly imagined that the price of Bitcoin would soar as soon as its third Halving passed. However, things are rarely that simple in the world of Bitcoin. The effects of Halving are never immediate. In the days and weeks to come, we will even witness a big drop in the price of Bitcoin, before its future Bull Market can really start.
Halving makes Bitcoin rarer than ever
The third Halving of Bitcoin took place on May 11, 2020 at 9:23 p.m. UTC. A little before the beginning of May 2020 until the 630,000 block marking the start of the fourth era of Bitcoin, we could see a strong increase in purchases.
Since that day, Bitcoin has become rarer than ever with inflation falling to 1.8%, just above that of gold.
This increase was clearly due to the craze for the third Bitcoin Halving. A viral effect had started to develop, as the extremely large increase in the volume of research for the term “Bitcoin Halving” on Google.
Bitcoin repeatedly fails to break $ 10,000 resistance
In fact, the price of Bitcoin had gone from $ 7,500 at near $ 10,000 in ten days. An augmentation of 33% of the price of Bitcoin which led to a logical correction just before May 11, 2020:
In the days after Halving, the price of Bitcoin rose above $ 9K worn by many who believe that the strong bull market for Bitcoin would start immediately.
The price of Bitcoin then repeatedly came up against the resistance of the $ 10,000.
By failing to overcome this resistance, the price of Bitcoin has been falling for a few days now.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has again fallen below $ 9,000 :
The days to come could therefore be marked by the color red synonymous with a big drop for the price of Bitcoin. And all this while many people expected Bitcoin to go straight into a Bull market unrestrained.
The price stagnation between $ 9,000 and $ 10,000 which lasted for ten days after the third Halving of Bitcoin has thrown many people into doubt.
Lack of patience gives rise to doubts among the less experienced
I of course want to talk here beginners who have just entered the world of Bitcoin. They surely imagined that the effects of Halving on the price of Bitcoin were going to be immediate. However, this is never the case.
They could have known about it if they had analyzed what had previously happened in 2012 and 2016.
Previous Bitcoin Halvings have taught us that the strong bull market always takes a while to start:
- In 2012, the peak of the bull market was reached after 12 months with an increase in the price of Bitcoin between the day of the first Halving and this peak of + 9.150%.
- In 2016, the peak of the bull market was reached after 18 months. The increase in the price of Bitcoin has been + 2.836%.
What’s happening right now is clearly no surprise to me. I am obviously not the only one to have imagined such a scenario. Everyone who has been in the Bitcoin world for quite a long time already had this type of scenario in mind.
This stagnation in the price of Bitcoin is developing a FUD feeling among the less experienced.
People who don’t believe in the Bitcoin revolution are going to tend to sell in the days to come. As was the case in the past, these people will make the mistake of letting their feelings guide their choices.
They must have already read articles or books explaining that emotions are the enemy of investors. However, faced with the drop in the price of Bitcoin, they panic and fail to apply the essential principles of which they have been able to learn theoretically.
This shows that there is always a world between theory and practice.
A big drop to be expected in the price of Bitcoin…
The big question now is how far a Bitcoin dump could take its price. With the support of $ 8,800 which has just been broken, the price of Bitcoin should go to test the next one which is much lower at $ 8,200.
Breaking the support of $ 8,200 would mean a much greater drop for the price of Bitcoin since the following supports are at $ 7,400, then $ 6,500.
More and more people think that Bitcoin will return to this area of $ 6K in the days and weeks to come. As always with the price of Bitcoin, no guarantees, just feelings and possibilities.
If Bitcoin reaches this $ 6K zone, this would be a great opportunity to accumulate more. Of course, for that, you have to really believe in the Bitcoin revolution. In the same way that I and the other Bitcoiners firmly believe in it.
Those who have sufficient belief in Bitcoin will be able to accumulate more Bitcoins in the days and weeks to come at prices that will seem extremely cheap in the future.
If you doubt this strategy, remember what the Bitcoiners did on March 12, 2020 during the Black Thursday of Bitcoin. When its price has reached $ 3,800, they jumped at the chance to accumulate more Bitcoins. Today, they are rewarded.
It will be the same with this potential fall in the area of $ 6K in my opinion. As such, I encourage you to rediscover the 2 golden rules to win every time with Bitcoin. This will be very useful in the days and weeks to come.
… Before the Bitcoin Bull Market starts
This fall and stagnation in this area will last for some time. But then, the price of Bitcoin will start again and the strong bull market may start to settle.
I don’t have a specific timeline for this. But I think we will have to be patient and wait until the end of summer 2020.
Analysis of what happened in 2012 and 2016 lets me imagine that the strong bull market we all expect in the Bitcoin world will really start around September 2020.
I could be wrong of course, it’s just a feeling here.
This bull market could last from 18 to 24 months. It might even take us beyond the end of 2021 to see it reach its highest. To give you an idea of the potential for bitcoin price increases, be aware that between the first and second Halving, the rise in the price of Bitcoin had decreased by 69%.
Applying the same drop, we could expect a potential rise in the price of Bitcoin 879% between its price on the day of the third Halving and the price it will reach at the top of its strong bull market.
Bitcoin price was $ 8,500 the day of his third Halving. If such a rise materializes during its next Bull Market, we could see the price of Bitcoin exceed $ 80K.
So you see that the predictions of those who see Bitcoin reaching $ 100K at the end of 2021 are based on very real analyzes.
For the next few weeks, my position is therefore to remain patient while maintaining confidence in Bitcoin. As you know, Bitcoin rewards those who truly believe in it. It has always worked that way, and it will continue to work that way.
Everything is gradually being put in place so that the next Bitcoin bull market will take place as expected. The macro economic events that we are currently experiencing with the responses of governments to the economic crisis will even play a catalytic role which will accentuate this future rise in the price of Bitcoin.
So you just have to be patient and strong in character in the days and weeks to come. The resilience of Bitcoin since its creation will inspire you to achieve it. If you know how to stay strong by steadfastly keeping what you have in Bitcoin, you will benefit all the better from the Bull Market to come.
Developer by training, I discovered Bitcoin in 2014 but I did not immediately understand the importance it could have for the world of tomorrow. I got into it more deeply from the start of 2017 and since then I haven’t given up on the business.
Passionate about Bitcoin and the new system it is trying to build for the future, I decided to participate in its evangelism at my modest level by writing on Bitcoin, Blockchain and crypto currencies on different supports.
It is with pleasure that I publish some of my texts in French on The Coin Tribune.
I also write a lot about personal development and self-improvement.
Do not hesitate to exchange with me via social networks or in comments on my articles if you have questions about my articles.