Real Estate

2020 forecast return maintained

Raphaël Oziel, director of the Linxea real estate division, gives us his analysis based on a remarkable work of data collection on a sample of 30 SCPIs. If the SCPIs manage to maintain a yield of around 4% in 2020, they could even emerge strengthened from this unprecedented test, for their 50 years of existence. Meet.

What initial assessment can you make based on the data collected by the Linxea SCPI Observatory?

First of all, as a savings and SCPI specialist, we thought it would be interesting to carry out data collection work with the SCPIs in order to compile the various dividends of the 1st quarter that were paid at the end of April, as well that the projected returns of 27 SCPI who announced a “planned” return for 2020. Recall that the collection was exceptional during the first quarter of 2020. And the distribution of dividends from 1er quarter was completed “satisfactorily”, as 84% ​​of the SCPIs surveyed by the Linxea SCPI Observatory paid a similar dividend or down 20%. Only 10 SCPIs out of a total of 61 companies surveyed posted a significant drop in their dividend, often out of caution. If we look more closely, one of the most significant decreases concerns a diversified SCPI which shows a decrease of 42% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to that of 2019. This one was more strongly impacted by the crisis and decided to donate only what she has collected. Another interesting and reassuring fact: “84% of SCPI share partners” continued to receive an overall satisfactory rent distribution. In my opinion, these are very reassuring signals.

What impact has the health crisis had on the distribution of dividends?

The impact of the crisis has crystallized on the collection of rents by management companies. Some have asked for rent deferrals or monthly rent payments instead of quarterly. To date, it can be argued that a quarter of the year’s cash inflows were made in this first quarter. The balance of the data collected is reassuring, and for example, the SCPI of “Epargne Foncière” offices has already announced to us that it had received 2/3 of second-quarter rents, or 66% over the year. Another example, this time, for a more recent SCPI such as “Coeur de Région”, it collected almost 90% of second quarter rents. The situation is not so alarming. Other SCPIs may even have up to a quarter in advance payments to date.

What about the returns for the year 2020 based on your data collection?

The yield prospects that we have calculated ” are very good “, in view of the current crisis situation. Of the 27 SCPIs analyzed, we observe forecast return, if all goes well in the coming months, by 4.72% (median) for the year 2020. That of 2019 was 5.13%. Or a decrease of 8%. On a sample of around 30 “emblematic” SCPIs in their sectors, the return would therefore amount to 3.98% over 2020. I think this is a very positive signal towards savers. We can even hope, if the situation does not get worse, reach 4%, some will even be 6%! We can see that the SCPI model is solid.

So the SCPIs seem to be coping well with a crisis of this magnitude?

Yes, the analyzes we have conducted are intended to be positive and reassuring. The SCPIs analyzed have rather solid tenants on the one hand and comfortable reserves on the other hand, which they could moreover use at the end of the year to support a potentially heckled yield during the third quarter of 2020. Some would even better resist the current crisis situation. I am thinking in particular of niche SCPIs, in health, logistics and residential, without forgetting the diversified SCPIs which perform with good annual returns. I am thinking, for example, of “Coeur de Régions” or “Epargne Pierre”, which have assets distributed according to different criteria (geolocation and typology). Other successful SCPIs: “Immorente” which also knew how to diversify its assets over time, and in the logistics sector, “Activimmo” which could even perform at 6% this year.

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